Incidence, Risk Factors and Future Cancer Rates
As the number of new and existing cases of cancer continues to grow, so too does demand for cancer services and new programs to improve the quality of care and services for patients and their families. The infrastructure required to deliver these services and programs will need to keep pace if care and services are not to suffer.
The number of new cancer cases increases each year at a rate of approximately 2 percent due to population growth, aging of population, and risk factor prevalence (the proportion of the population with cancer risk factors).
Risk factor prevalence affects Manitoba more significantly than other jurisdictions due to the province’s far larger proportion of First Nation, Métis and Inuit peoples in its population (15 percent) compared to the national average (3.8 percent). This group has two to three times the prevalence of cancer risk factors compared to the general population and is also the fastest growing segment of the population.
If the risk factor prevalence rate in the province remains constant from 2006 to 2026, projections indicate an almost 50% increase in incidence over the 20 years. In numbers, this means that in 2026, nearly 8,000 new cases of cancer will be diagnosed, compared to the 5,500 cases that were diagnosed in 2006.
Prevalence projections over the next 15 years estimate the number of Manitobans living with cancer in 2025 to be 61,000 (or 5 % of the population), significantly increasing the requirement for cancer services and taxing the available resources.